Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Obama Dividend,Housing 2 for 1 Splits

It is NOT News to declare the jobless recovery a Failure, but in my daily efforts to earn my living some observations give me pause. Watching the Real Estate markets from a 1-4 Family Property Management perspective is providing evidence that Serious Damage to the American Dream has been inflicted by Politician and Social Engineer wonks. I wish for it to be other than Fatal, but I won't make that call here and stick with Serious. I have not performed the research to provide supporting numbers of affected households, this is a bad feeling in my stomach based on recent market observations and client encounters. The 2 for 1 Splits in Family Units ARE  absorbing Real Estate inventory-albeit at enormous costs, emotional and financial.

Economic Marital Strife
The root of all human (relationship) pain is "unrealistic expectations", but that is a writing for another audience. The number one cause of troubled marriages today may be the ability to cope with Financial Stress. The fears of insecurity from job loss and underemployment being compounded by a Loss of Value of the single biggest purchase -owner occupied housing- are a recipe for Irreconcilable Differences in too many families I encounter today.

Can't Afford the 1, Lets Have 2...
So we have a Family Unit, that feels it can not afford the lifestyle (and Pressures) of remaining a SINGLE family unit becoming broken in TWO.

Whether Mom stays, and Dad goes to Rent -or- House is vacated and Mom and Dad go to Rent, You have to be emotionally immersed to deny obvious logic failure in this prescription. The air May Feel different at first, but it will be a very rare case when ANYONE'S Lifestyle is improved by this maneuver. [Disclaimer: I do not condone Marriage as excuse for Abusive relationships, and such are not to be tolerated, on pain of ultimate Marital Exit Clause.]

Renters Tax...
We have Bankruptcy and Under-Employed folks that can not Qualify [with a reasonably steady Job] for a Loan Modification [Rates Only even] that are Splitting households in two PLUS Paying the Renters Tax.

Using local market numbers, I estimate that Renters Tax for a medium sized home to be on the order of 1/3 (33%) more expensive than owning the home. Even if both downsize, with Mom or Dad taking unequal size demotion, the Housing Costs can easily increase 2x for the two home family. Factoring in Utilities increases I calculate housing component can then represent 205% of the NEW household Budget.

Hitting Total...
On this "2 for 1 SPLIT" decision, the Winners are clearly the Investment Property Owners, which are creating Wealth for their family. Note to Suzie spreading the lie on CNBC and hat-tip Robert Kiyosaki, Owner Occupied Real Property is an Expense, NOT an investment!

This investor wealth may help save or create Handy-Man jobs, but does not produce meaningful product with the Depreciating Assets (Rental Housing), and hence yields a Net-Negative Economic Impact.

Unable to Print Dollars like the Federal Reserve does for the U.S. Treasury, the newly minted  two-house Family must re-prioritize expenditures of their available Income, adjusting for the increased Housing Burden component. This is no doubt Job Killing, as discretionary spending is reduced by 25% as percentage of the Original Family Unit income. Look at the Types of Business failures in your neighborhood.

My Sincere Condolences
To all of the Family's affected by this Economy that is -I argue- the result of 100yrs of Sociopolitical Engineering and Government Iniquity, including Sanctioned Ponzi's; Debilitating Regulatory regimes; Fiscal Resource Confiscation; Markets Denial of access to Public Resources,  i offer my sincerest condolences.

To everyone else, expect the RENTAL Market to remain on fire for 10 to 20 years...when liberal intellectuals look back on "Progress" they fail to identify the Failure or embrace hard earned credit thereof. This contribution to continued economic malaise must be reversed, purge elected officials Round -2-, November 2012

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